KARACHI: Pakistan fertilizer sector saw a remarkable turnaround in November with urea sales rising 133% month-on-month and 25% year-on-year, buoyed by strong agricultural activity and aggressive discounting by key producers.
According to industry sources, urea offtake for November 2025 is expected to reach 817,000 tons, which will be one of the strongest monthly recoveries for the year. Market checks reveal that discounts offered by EFERT remained in the range of Rs300–350 per bag, while for FFC, the average discount was at Rs80 per bag, which boosted demand across key farming regions.
Despite the solid November performance, 11-month 2025 sales declined 4% year-on-year, slipping to 5.37 million tons from 5.58 million tons in the same period of 2024.
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There was also a sharp drawdown of inventories during the month. The urea closing inventory is expected to drop to 1.05 million tons in November, from 1.42 million tons in October. On a company-wise basis, EFERT has the largest inventory of 520,000 tons, followed by Fatima Fertilizer at 291,000 tons and FFC at 262,000 tons.
Sales performance among individual companies was robust. FFC is set to post a 133% month-on-month jump, with sales estimated at 387,000 tons. EFERT’s urea sales are projected at 269,000 tons, up 121% from the previous month, while Fatima Fertilizer is expected to record 125,000 tons, reflecting an impressive 190% year-on-year growth.
However, the picture is different for DAP. DAP sales in November are expected at around 216,000 tons, down 1% month-on-month and 14% year-on-year. For 11M2025, DAP offtake is anticipated at 1.2 million tons, a decline of 17% from the same period last year. Company estimates suggest FFC sold around 131,000 tons of DAP during the month, while EFERT’s DAP sales are expected near 40,000 tons.
Notably, DAP inventories also declined significantly. Stock levels for November are expected at 215,000 tons, significantly down from 408,000 tons in October and 307,000 tons in November 2024.
Outlook
Analysts believe urea demand will stay strong in December, helped by seasonal farming needs and healthier crop activity. With sales performing better than expected, urea stocks may fall below 1 million tons — much lower than the earlier estimate of 1.2 million tons.
