ISLAMABAD: Pakistan inflation rate is expected to rise again in November 2025 as analysts projecting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to clock between 6.5% and 7.0% YoY. This would be slightly higher than 6.25% in October, and well above the 4.86% recorded in November last year, indicating that the recent calm in prices may not last as long as hoped.
Early estimates show that Pakistan inflation rate rising by 0.8% month-on-month, mainly because food prices went up again. Much of this increase comes from supply issues that still haven’t settled after the recent floods. On top of that, the temporary closure of the Afghan border slowed the movement of fruits and vegetables into Pakistan, tightening supplies and pushing prices higher.
Food Prices Spike Again
The food basket, which perhaps most immediately affects the consumers, was the main contributor to the monthly increase. Prices of various everyday items shot upwards, some quite sharply.
Onions jumped an astonishing 59% in one month. Chicken prices rose 16%, meat by 15%, and a wide category of fresh vegetables by around 12%. Traders are blaming this on a mix of logistical disruptions, flood-hit farmlands, and higher transport costs.
While tomatoes dropped 56% month-on-month, this is because their prices had spiked unusually high a month ago; their decline has more to do with market correction than any real improvement in supply.
As a result, food inflation offset the improvements witnessed during the beginning of the year and became the single largest contributor to the upward shift in headline inflation.
Related: SBP Report Highlights Sharp Fall in Inflation, Economic Stability in FY25
Power bills eat into household budgets.
Apart from food products, consumers felt the pinch in power tariffs. The category that covers housing, water, electricity and gas saw a rise of 0.79% in November. The main reason was an increase in electricity bills after the previous negative adjustment was discontinued.
From August to October, households received some relief through a quarterly tariff adjustment of –Rs1.8881/kWh. That expired in November with no new QTA announced, meaning that the bills have higher base charges again. The fuel charges adjustment for the month was still negative at –Rs0.4812/kWh, not enough to meaningfully reduce overall electricity costs.
For many families already coping with the burden of increased food expenditure, the surge in electricity bills was an additional strain.
Transport Prices Barely Budge
Interestingly, despite the fuel prices having moved in opposite directions, the transport segment is expected to reflect a mere 0.05% decline month-on-month. While petrol prices have declined by 1%, high-speed diesel has become more expensive by 0.8%. The net effect being small, the transport index remains largely stable.
Market watchers say transport fare increases usually take time to come through, as operators adjust the fares piecemeal, especially for intercity routes. For now, this is one rare pocket of stability in an otherwise rising price environment.
Real Interest Rates Surge to Multi-Year Highs
Real interest rates for November jump to 400-450 basis points, one of the highest levels Pakistan has seen in several years, with inflation expected in the 6.5-7.0% range. Historically, the real rate has sat at around 200-300 bps.
What it means practically is that borrowing remains expensive; that is good for inflation control but tough on businesses needing credit to expand. Analysts believe the State Bank may eventually consider easing rates once it sees a consistent downward trend in prices and feels confident about external stability.
Risks Ahead for Price Stability
While the latest projections are manageable, Pakistan inflation rate outlook is still vulnerable to multiple risks. Any serious change in global commodity prices—oil, wheat, edible oil, sugar—could change the trajectory of Pakistan inflation rate. The country is heavily dependent on imported food and fuel, so small movements in international markets tend to show up quite quickly in domestic prices.
Weather-related problems and breaks in the supply chain are still a major worry, especially for perishable food items. With winter demand increasing and some crops still recovering from flood damage, prices are expected to stay unstable in the coming months. Looking ahead, November’s inflation number is a reminder that the progress seen earlier in the year is still fragile. The economy remains exposed to both local and global pressures.
Food prices continue to swing unpredictably, electricity costs can change suddenly, and global uncertainty is making decision-makers more careful. For ordinary people, this likely means more price ups and downs as Pakistan slowly works its way through a difficult recovery phase.
