Pakistan’s rice sector faced a revenue shock in FY25 as export earnings declined sharply due to weakening international prices, despite relatively stable shipment volumes. Data released by Optimus Capital Management on Monday highlighted that Pakistan rice exports remained resilient in quantity terms but suffered significantly on the value side amid global pricing pressures.

Export Volumes Show Limited Decline

According to the brokerage house, total Pakistan rice exports reached 5.8 million metric tons during FY25, reflecting a modest decline of 3.7 percent compared to 6 million metric tons recorded in the previous fiscal year. The limited contraction in volume indicates that Pakistan maintained its presence in key export markets despite challenging global conditions.

Earnings Fall Sharply on Price Pressure

While volumes held up, export earnings told a different story. Total revenue from Pakistan rice exports dropped 14.7 percent year-on-year to 3.36 billion dollars in FY25, down from 3.93 billion dollars in FY24. Analysts attributed the decline primarily to falling global rice prices, particularly affecting non-basmati varieties that dominate Pakistan’s export mix.

Non-Basmati Rice Drives Revenue Decline

Non-basmati rice, which accounts for more than 85 percent of Pakistan rice exports, remained under intense pricing pressure throughout the year. Exports of these varieties declined 4.7 percent in volume, while export value plunged 17.4 percent. Earnings from non-basmati shipments fell to 2.52 billion dollars in FY25 from 3.05 billion dollars a year earlier, reflecting weaker demand and aggressive price competition in major markets.

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Basmati Volumes Rise but Earnings Slip

Basmati rice offered limited relief. Export volumes increased marginally by 3 percent to 797,000 tons, but earnings from basmati shipments declined 5.2 percent to 832 million dollars, compared to 877 million dollars in FY24. The decline underscores how falling prices diluted the gains from higher volumes within Pakistan rice exports.

Average Prices Drop Nearly 9 Percent

Data showed that average rice export prices fell nearly 9.1 percent year-on-year to 291.6 rupees per kilogram in FY25, compared to 320.8 rupees per kilogram in the previous fiscal. This price correction was a key factor weighing on overall Pakistan rice exports, particularly amid abundant global supply and softer demand.

June Exports See Sharp Monthly Decline

On a monthly basis, June 2025 marked a weak close for Pakistan rice exports. Shipments fell 40.6 percent month-on-month and 37.1 percent compared to June 2024. Export revenues dropped to 150 million dollars, representing a decline of more than 50 percent year-on-year and 37.4 percent compared to May, reflecting both seasonal slowdown and pricing stress.

Reduced Share in Overall Exports

As a result of the revenue contraction, rice exports’ share in Pakistan’s total exports declined to 10.5 percent in FY25 from 12.8 percent in the previous year. Despite this decline, analysts note that Pakistan rice exports continue to play a critical role in supporting foreign exchange inflows and rural livelihoods.

Outlook Remains Cautiously Stable

Market participants believe that while price pressures may persist in the near term, Pakistan’s competitive cost structure and diversified export destinations could help stabilize Pakistan rice exports going forward, particularly if global demand improves and supply conditions tighten.