Pakistan’s mobile phone manufacturing sector recorded a sharp decline in October 2025, with total output falling 23% month-on-month, according to new data released by the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) and compiled by Topline Securities.
Overall production dropped to 2.33 million units in October, significantly lower than the 3.53 million units produced in the same month last year—marking a 34% year-on-year contraction. Industry analysts attribute this slowdown primarily to elevated inventory levels across the supply chain, forcing manufacturers to curtail output to prevent further stock accumulation.
According to industry checks, distributors and retailers continued to hold larger-than-usual inventories throughout October, reflecting subdued consumer demand during the previous quarter. As a result, major local assemblers scaled back their production schedules to align with actual market off-take.
Despite the temporary setback, cumulative production figures highlight the progress made by Pakistan’s local manufacturing ecosystem. Of the 25.11 million devices produced in the first ten months of 2025, 53% (13.2 million units) were smartphones, while the remaining 47% (11.9 million units) comprised basic 2G feature phones—still a key segment for low-income and rural consumers.
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The data further shows that Pakistan fulfilled 94% of its total mobile phone demand through domestic manufacturing and assembly during the January–October period of 2025. This marks a substantial improvement from the five-year average of 77% recorded between 2020 and 2024, as well as the nine-year average of 52% between 2016 and 2024. The trend reflects both enhanced local capacity and stricter regulatory oversight that discouraged the influx of smuggled and illegally imported devices.
Market analysts remain optimistic about the outlook for the sector. Mobile phone sales in Pakistan are projected to rise by 7–8% year-on-year over the next 12 months, supported by macroeconomic stability, a relatively firm Pakistani rupee, easing inflationary pressures, and gradually improving consumer purchasing power. The recovery in retail demand is expected to help manufacturers return to higher production levels in the coming months.
Within the stock market’s listed companies, Airlink Communication (AIRLINK) and Lucky Cement (LUCK)—which has investments in the mobile device assembly space—are expected to benefit the most from the anticipated demand recovery. Their locally assembled brands, including Tecno, Xiaomi, and Samsung, continue to dominate retail shelves and are consistently ranked among Pakistan’s top ten smartphone vendors.
Industry experts say that as consumer sentiment improves and inventories return to normal levels, local assembly plants may ramp up output once again. However, they caution that the sector’s performance remains closely tied to broader economic stability, import policy consistency, and the availability of key components.
While October’s decline has raised short-term concerns, the overall trend indicates a steady transition toward self-reliance in mobile phone manufacturing—an outcome supported by government policy interventions, rising foreign partnerships, and expanding local production capabilities.
