KARACHI: Sindh has been placed on high alert as the mighty Indus River continues to swell, with forecasts warning that Sukkur is on the verge of heavy flooding between September 7 and 8. Authorities are intensifying preparations to prevent large-scale devastation as powerful floodwaters race downstream from Punjab towards Sindh’s barrages.
Punjab Floodwaters Moving South
Fresh warnings issued by the Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) Lahore and the Meteorological Department point to rising danger in Sindh as floodwaters from Punjab make their way into the Indus system. Already, villages across Punjab have been inundated, forcing thousands to evacuate. The accumulated water is now heading towards Guddu, Sukkur, and Kotri barrages, raising fears of more destruction further south.
At present, river flows at Guddu Barrage have reached 318,200 cusecs, with forecasts suggesting levels could fluctuate between 290,000 and 320,000 cusecs over the next 24 hours. Sukkur Barrage has reported inflows of 285,500 cusecs, with predictions of a slight dip to 260,000–280,000 cusecs. Kotri Barrage, meanwhile, carried 273,800 cusecs and may rise to nearly 295,000 cusecs.
While these figures currently qualify as low flood levels, forecasts show that the Indus at Sukkur and Guddu may rise to very high flood levels by September 7 and 8, putting vast tracts of agricultural land and surrounding communities at risk.
Reservoirs Nearing Capacity
The danger is compounded by the fact that Pakistan’s two main reservoirs are already close to their maximum capacity. Tarbela Dam has reached 1,550 feet—its full live storage—while Mangla Dam stands at 1,225.75 feet, holding nearly 83 percent of its capacity. With little room to absorb additional inflows, these reservoirs could release excess water downstream, further straining the Indus.
Torrential Rains Fueling Rivers
The FFD Lahore reported widespread thundershowers over the upper catchments of the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, and Sutlej. In addition, scattered rainfall has been recorded across Rawalpindi, while the upper Indus basin is expected to see isolated heavy showers.
Between September 2 and 8, widespread heavy to very heavy rains are forecast in the upper catchments of the Sutlej, Ravi, and Chenab. Torrential downpours could swell the rivers to dangerous levels, forcing their tributaries and nullahs to overflow.
- Chenab at Trimmu has surged to 479,700 cusecs and may rise to 600,000 cusecs, which falls in the exceptionally high flood category.
- Sutlej at Ganda Singh Wala is bracing for flows of 250,000–270,000 cusecs, with water levels climbing steadily.
- Ravi at Balloki and Shahdara are also under pressure, with sustained high inflows threatening surrounding areas.
Sindh Braces for Impact
With Punjab’s rivers already overflowing, the downstream flow into Sindh is expected to peak in the coming days. The Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) Sindh has issued urgent advisories to district administrations, instructing them to remain on round-the-clock alert. Officials have been asked to monitor embankments, prepare evacuation routes, and ensure relief camps are functional.
“Forecasts are being updated daily and require constant monitoring,” the PDMA noted, stressing that flood intensity remains tied to releases from Indian reservoirs. “Any sudden release could accelerate river flows beyond anticipated levels.”
Urban Flooding Threat
The warnings extend beyond rural riverbanks. With heavy rains expected in the coming days, urban flooding is feared in Lahore, Gujranwala, and Gujrat divisions. In many areas, drainage systems remain overwhelmed, raising concerns about stagnant water, damage to infrastructure, and outbreaks of waterborne diseases.
Relief Efforts Already Underway
Rescue teams have been mobilized across Punjab and Sindh, with officials racing against time to mitigate the impact. Reports confirm that thousands of residents and livestock have already been evacuated from flood-prone areas. Relief camps have been established, offering temporary shelter, food, and medical assistance.
In Punjab, six dedicated teams rescued more than 5,000 stranded people and 15,000 animals, relocating them to safer areas. In Sindh, authorities have begun stockpiling rations and medicines, while volunteers work alongside the government to assist displaced families.
Sukkur: The Critical Flashpoint
Experts believe Sukkur Barrage will be the decisive battleground in Sindh’s flood defense. Built during the British era, Sukkur Barrage remains the lifeline for irrigation in Sindh, feeding canals that support millions of acres of farmland. However, when water levels rise dangerously high, the barrage and its canals risk overspilling, inundating villages and agricultural fields.
If forecasts of a very high flood at Sukkur materialize, the consequences could be severe. Thousands of acres of standing crops in Sindh’s fertile belt may be washed away, livestock swept downstream, and entire settlements displaced.
Climate Change Behind Intensified Floods
Officials and experts agree that the scale of flooding is worsened by climate change. Erratic monsoon patterns, glacial melt, and rising temperatures have contributed to unpredictable weather systems. The 2022 floods devastated one-third of Pakistan, displacing millions and costing billions in damages. The current scenario threatens to compound the nation’s fragile economic and humanitarian situation.
“Pakistan is one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world,” an FFD official observed. “Each year, the scale of floods seems to intensify. Without long-term resilience planning, these disasters will continue to devastate communities and cripple the economy.”
Karachi’s Humid Spell
While Sukkur braces for floodwaters, Karachi faces its own weather-related challenges. A three-day humid spell has been forecast for the city, with drizzle and cloudy skies dominating the first week of September.
- September 1: Mostly cloudy with light drizzle.
- September 2: Partly cloudy, humid, with intermittent drizzle.
- September 3: Continued partly cloudy conditions.
The city’s maximum temperature is expected to range between 31–33°C, with minimums of 26–28°C. Morning humidity levels will remain high at 70–80 percent, dropping slightly to 60–70 percent by evening. West to south-westerly winds are expected to persist, keeping conditions damp and uncomfortable.
The Road Ahead
As the Indus continues to swell, Sukkur’s fate hangs in the balance. With Punjab’s floodwaters cascading southwards, the next few days are critical. Authorities have urged residents living near embankments and in low-lying areas to evacuate immediately and move to designated safe zones.
Relief agencies, both government and private, are bracing for an influx of displaced families. However, resources remain stretched, and the sheer scale of the challenge may overwhelm local administrations.
Also Read: Punjab on High Alert as Exceptionally High Floods Loom in Ravi, Sutlej and Chenab
For now, Sindh remains in suspense—watching river levels rise and bracing for the storm to hit. If the Indus at Sukkur breaches the danger mark, the province could be staring at one of its worst flood disasters in recent memory.
