Parong (Reuters): China’s decision to build the world’s largest hydropower dam in Tibet has triggered alarm in New Delhi, where policymakers fear the project could drastically reduce water flows to India and heighten tensions between the two Asian giants.
An internal Indian government assessment, reviewed by Reuters and corroborated by multiple officials, warns that the Chinese dam—planned on the Yarlung Zangbo river before it enters India as the Siang and later becomes the Brahmaputra—could cut dry-season flows by up to 85%. The river, which originates from the Angsi Glacier in Tibet, sustains more than 100 million people across China, India, and Bangladesh.
India’s Counter-Dam Strategy
In response, India is accelerating plans for its own Upper Siang Multipurpose Storage Dam, which could become the country’s largest hydropower project. The dam is designed to store 14 billion cubic meters of water, enabling India to release supplies during dry months and absorb sudden surges in case of upstream releases from Chinese projects.
Without India’s project, regions such as Assam’s capital Guwahati could face water shortages of up to 25% during the dry season. With the dam in place, losses could be reduced to around 11%, according to the government analysis.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s office has held multiple high-level meetings this year to fast-track the project. In May, survey teams from India’s state-run NHPC moved equipment to a proposed site under police protection—sparking clashes with local villagers.
Local Resistance in Arunachal Pradesh
Many in Arunachal Pradesh’s Siang Valley strongly oppose India’s dam, fearing widespread displacement. At least 16 villages of the Adi tribe are expected to be submerged, directly affecting 10,000 people and impacting more than 100,000 overall.
“The cardamom, paddy, and fruits we grow here sustain our families—we will fight this dam to death,” said Odoni Palo Pabin, a resident of Parong.
Clashes have already erupted, with villagers destroying equipment and blocking access roads. Authorities are attempting to negotiate compensation, while the state government, led by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, has described the Chinese project as an “existential threat” requiring countermeasures.
Strategic and Environmental Risks
China broke ground on its $170 billion project in July, with completion expected by the mid-2030s—well ahead of India’s proposed dam. Experts warn the gap leaves India vulnerable if Beijing decides to alter water flows during construction.
Environmental concerns add to the tension. The Himalayan region is highly seismic and prone to landslides, floods, and glacial bursts. “Building mega-dams in this zone raises very real concerns about safety for downstream communities,” said Sayanangshu Modak, a scholar of India-China water relations at the University of Arizona.
China has rejected such concerns, insisting its hydropower projects undergo “rigorous scientific assessments” and do not harm downstream nations. “China has always maintained responsible cooperation with India and Bangladesh on transboundary rivers,” its foreign ministry said.
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Water: The New Flashpoint
India’s foreign minister S. Jaishankar raised the issue with his Chinese counterpart in August, underscoring the strategic sensitivity of the project. Meanwhile, India itself faces accusations from Pakistan of manipulating river flows, highlighting how water is becoming a key fault line in South Asia’s geopolitics.
With climate change accelerating glacial melt and intensifying extreme weather, analysts warn that water disputes between India and China could become the next major flashpoint—adding fresh volatility to an already tense border relationship.
